Who do you think you're talking to? Anyone watching the NBA draft is already a confirmed basketball junkie.
We don't need the personality interviews -- "What went through your mind when you were picked?" What went through your mind when you decided to ask that question?
We don't need the repetitive scouting reports --"Needs to improve: perimeter shooting." Thanks for describing every draftee in pro basketball history. For one guy, Jay Bilas announced that he had "skills." Oh! Good!
We don't need the shallow analysis -- I can't remember a single thing Jeff Van Gundy or Mark Jackson said, and I watched them for five hours.
We definitely don't need the annual Dick Vitale rant -- it's the same every year: "The teams that didn't pick the big college stars are idiots. All the big college stars who got picked will be all-stars. Someone needs to change my colostomy bag. etc, etc, etc."
Give us some real analysis. Where's John Hollinger? Or throw in some fun. Where's Bill Simmons?
Increasingly, ESPN's coverage is a source of ridicule more than something worth listening to. Pick up your game, World Leader.
Friday, June 26, 2009
My Issues With ESPN's Draft Coverage
Thursday, June 25, 2009
2009 Mock Draft Jamboree
Below, my annual presentation of what the mock drafters predict for the 4 p.m. NBA draft.
NOTES:
1) Apparently Michael Jordan isn't doing a very good job of shielding his hand (shocking, I know). Everyone thinks Terrence Williams is his guy.
2) Daye goes in the first round according to everyone.
3) All but one mock drafter has Heytvelt going ahead of Brockman.
4) Not looking good for Pargo, Downs, or Dentmon.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The Case for Mike Morse
If Yuniesky Betancourt goes on the disabled list--as he likely will--the M's are going to need a starting shortstop.
Who plays shortstop isn't their biggest problem, though. When "Chad Gaudin" strikes you out 11 times, I mean come the f on. They need offense.
Mike Morse is the answer to both conundrums.
Let's take shortstop first. The current major league roster contains three potential shortstops -- Chris Woodward, Ronny Cedeno, Josh Wilson. Go ahead, look at their stats. I'll wait for you.
...
I hear you gagging, so you must have seen them. All three are atrocious hitters.
Morse's career OPS, which at .762 is no great shakes, is still more than 100 points higher than Cedeno or Wilson's, and nearly 100 points higher than Woodward's. (Note: Woodward has 33 career homers, 20 of which came in 2002 and 2003. Long time ago, and a "different era" if you will.)
Morse is hitting over .300 in Tacoma with an .828 OPS. Woodward, by contrast, was OPSing .766.
You've seen Morse enough to know that he has a little pop in his bat (very little, but more than the punchless trio mentioned above). At 27, he's entering peak hitting age. And he's versatile; he can play all four infield positions. (Though he should never, ever again be seen in the outfield).
The knock on Morse is his range. Fielding stats hate the guy, Baseball Reference concludes that Morse's 2005 defensive performance, stretched out over a whole year, would have cost the M's 27 runs.
Not to go all Joe Morgan, but I don't see it that way. Morse isn't fast, but he's tall and athletic and, to my eyes, covers a decent amount of ground. He's made 3 errors at short this year in 21 games, which isn't bad. Sure, he's not Omar Vizquel, but he's not Rich Aurilia either.
Also, I remain wary of fielding statistics. The latest ones depend on human biases, as someone has to chart hits and record how hard the ball was hit. Sorry, there's too much variation in how people can perceive batted balls for that to work. Last year, "Ultimate Zone Rating", which is supposedly the gold standard in defensive stats, told us that Ryan Sweeney, Austin Kearns, and Alex Rios were all considerably better right fielders than Ichiro. I'm not buying what you're selling, Ultimate Zone Rating.
Moving on, there's this: Morse pretty much always does well when I'm at the games, and I have season tickets this year.
The M's have been saddled with a crummy defensive SS all season, and their run prevention hasn't seemed to suffer. Run production is the issue. And Mike Morse is the only guy in the organization with even a modicum of pop in his bat who can legitimately play shortstop. (Although, if they want to give Mike Carp a try, I won't object too much.)
MORSE FORCE UNITE!
Why Don't Sportswriters Use Dialect Anymore?
Wouldn't it be more fun if Chris Mortenson reported his recent cell phone communication with Brett Favre as: "Ah haven't made up mah mind 'bout the Vikin's yet."
If Mortenson were writing about Satchel Paige in the 1950's, he could! 
The writer is Bob Broeg, profiling St. Louis Browns catcher Clint Courtney in the April 15, 1953 issue of The Saturday Evening Post. Courtney was something of an oddity, a catcher who wore glasses. He, like Paige, apparently had an accent as well.
Courtney never did make a World Series, or become the best "ketcha" in baseball. Instead he became a part-timer for the Nationals and Orioles, then a minor league manager.
It truly was a different time -- how do you think this ad for Life magazine would go over now?
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
I've Had It With Adrian Beltre
(Originally posted yesterday on Seattlest)
Until recently, the rabid M's fan blog Lookout Landing sported this tagline: "If You Think Adrian Beltre Is Bad And/Or Overrated, I Hate You And Find You Stupid."
Fair enough. Beltre isn't bad or overrated. A Gold Glover and above-average offensive player, he's the best third baseman in Mariner history.
He just stinks at the craft of hitting a baseball.
A child prodigy (he was signed--illegally--at age 15 by the Dodgers), Beltre retains the free-swinging approach of a young hitter. It's as if Bill Gates still used punchcards.
Despite possessing the best power and bat speed combo of any Mariner hitter this decade, Beltre's poor habits have consigned him to be just a mediocre offensive producer.
And after four-plus seasons of watching Beltre's haplessness at-plate, our frustration meter has climbed to "bitchy."
Come, live the pain of a Seattle Mariners fan.
Thursday afternoon, Beltre came to bat in the tenth inning with the go-ahead run on second base.
The previous hitter, rookie Mike Carp, had worked a walk, laying off some tempting offerings near the outside corner.
Beltre got the same careful approach--and struck out on three pitches.
Adrian Beltre: Fourteen years of major league experience, earns $13M/year, sculpted physique.
Mike Carp: Two days of major league experience, makes the league minimum, stomach flops above his belt when he runs.
And Carp has the better batting eye.
What kind of God allows this to happen?
Ted Williams, another preternaturally talented hitter of Latino descent (Williams' mother was Mexican), was baseball's greatest student of hitting. To illustrate his philosophy, Williams created a chart consisting of 77 colored baseballs. In the middle, .400--what you'll hit if you swing at perfect pitches. On the perimeter, .260--what you'll hit if you swing at crappy ones. The philosophy, as another hitter* once put it: "You wait for a strike, then you knock the shit out of it."
Ted Williams would vomit if he saw Adrian Beltre hit.
The pitches Beltre swings at don't even make Williams' chart, they're so far from home plate.
Which makes it all the more incredible that Beltre has consistently hit major league pitching--the most difficult task in all of pro sports--despite lacking the hitting knowledge of the rawest major league rookie. That's how talented Beltre is.
And that's why it's so frustrating. If Beltre would exhibit an iota of plate discipline, he'd put up All-Star numbers. If he exhibited Williams' discipline, he might match Teddy Ballgame and hit .400.
If only some old-school bastard had forced a young Beltre to learn the twin tasks of pitch recognition and plate discipline, he could've been legendary.
Instead, Beltre swings and swings. And when his "plan" puts him at a disadvantage, he swings more.
In Beltre's 12-year career, he's dug himself an 0-2 hole in 1,272 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, he's worked back to get a walk only 13 times. 13! In 12 years!
Russell Branyan--hardly a Ted Williams--has already worked four such walks just this season.
During those 12 years, despite his impatient approach, Beltre has put up some outstanding numbers. In 2004, Beltre hit 48 homers for Los Angeles. He was a free agent that winter, and the Mariners signed him to a 5-year/$64 million contract. As a Mariner, Beltre hasn't approached his '04 numbers, but he has averaged more than 20 homers over four seasons--the best sustained offensive performance by a third baseman in Mariner history.
But now, as Beltre inches into his thirties, his impatient approach isn't getting the job done. Plagued by a recurring shoulder injury, and perhaps slowed by age, Beltre's power has deserted him. He has just five home runs this year.
If Beltre's power loss is permanent, and he just keeps swinging away, he'll be just another no-bat, good-glove third baseman. And as a free-agent at the end of this season, he may find himself taking a multi-million dollar paycut--if he gets a job offer at all. If Beltre doesn't change his approach now, his career may be over.
And over at Lookout Landing, the Beltre line is gone. The site's tagline is now "The Official Website For People Who Dream Of Doing Naughty Naughty Things To Russell Branyan."
*Stan Musial
