Bedard for Jones and Morrow--Why Haven't We Done This Yet?

Carlos Silva is the big news today. I'll have more about that tomorrow. I don't see it as a particularly big deal--the big deal would be the M's getting Eric Bedard.

I can't even begin to tell you how much I'd rather watch Adam Jones in the Mariners outfield next year than Raul Ibanez.

But if the Mariners have a chance to get Eric Bedard in exchange for Jones and Brandon Morrow, you gotta do it, right?

Now, I know that Jones and Morrow are the Mariners' two best prospects, but that's like saying The Shield and Nip/Tuck are the two best programs on FX--you wouldn't trade them for American Idol? In 2007, Jones was Baseball America's #28 prospect. Morrow was #87. These guys aren't can't-misses.

When I watch Adam Jones, I see a guy who reminds me enough of Ken Griffey, Jr. that I want to keep watching him. But, because of his long swing and 100+ strikeout seasons, he reminds me a little too much of Preston Wilson for me to think he's a sure thing.

His outfield defense was very shaky. Jones is very fast, so he gets to a lot of balls, but he seems to have trouble catching them. He's like a baseball version of Koren Robinson.

And Morrow is like a baseball version of another Packer: Brett Favre. Morrow only throws fastballs.

I don't care how hard Morrow throws, you can't last in baseball with only one pitch. Remember Matt Anderson? He topped 103 mph on the radar gun. His first major league season was eerily similar to Morrow's--getting to the bigs in the season after he was drafted out of college, he was installed as an 8th inning reliever and found success despite walking an appallingly high number of hitters.

Hitters figured out that Anderson was a one-trick pony, and his ERA shot up--to more than five the next year. Anderson finished his career in 2006 as a Bridgeport Bluefish.

Morrow walked more than seven batters per game last year, and when I looked for other pitchers who'd walked batters at such a high rate at such a young age, I found exactly the name I expected: Bobby Witt.

Despite his wildness, Witt had a long career, pitching 16 seasons. But he also had a below average career, finishing with a 143-157 career record.

I don't mean to dog on Jones or Morrow, I hope they have terrific careers wherever they end up. But it's hardly a stretch of the imagination to see them as busts, or just as average players.

Whenever it comes to trading prospects, we all blanch at the thought of giving away another Jason Varitek (lost in the Heathcliff Slocumb trade) or David Ortiz (traded for Dave Hollins). But it's worth remembering that for every one of those guys, there's a Matt Wagner (Jeff Fassero) or Dennis Stark (Jeff Cirillo) who ended up giving their next team next to nothing.

There isn't a Jeff Cirillo for every Jeff Fassero. In the overwhelming majority of trades for veterans, they've done exactly what they'd been doing.

Bedard seems like even more of a sure thing, since he wouldn't be switching leagues (and would actually be facing lighter competition, since he'd be pitching to AL West lineups instead of potent AL East ones).

These are Bedard's numbers last year: 13-6, 221 Ks in 182 innings. The guy is a stud, and he's only 28. Put him in the rotation with Felix, and this is a team that's good enough to contend for a playoff spot, and would be perfectly set up for the playoffs.

You can't say that about Morrow or Jones, either now or in the future.