Monday, January 21, 2008

Don't Cut Shaun Alexander Just Yet

The "cut Shaun Alexander" din has now reached Qwest-Field-esque decibel levels, just when I've reversed course and decided it's a bad idea.

I don't see how you can be sure that Alexander is the problem when the line was as bad as it was.

We know the line stunk. We know this for a fact. They couldn't get any push in short yardage situations. They couldn't create gaps of any kind.

And Alexander is not the type of runner who can create gaps for himself. He's the kind of runner who gets into the linebackers and safeties and is big and fast enough to push through them to the end zone.

He hasn't lost that skill--remember his touchdown reception in the Baltimore game? I reviewed it in eight froze-frame parts.

He caught a screen pass at the 15, shoved a strong safety aside at the 10, powered through a linebacker's arm tackle at the 5, and ran over a cornerback at the goal line.

Flashes of his former glory.

I worry that they'll cut Alexander too soon.

And I worry because something that Ravens LB Bart Scott said in the week leading up to that game has stuck with me. Scott was asked about whether Alexander had lost a step. He said: "I think they were saying the same thing about a guy like that who was in Baltimore that’s having a great season in Cleveland (Jamal Lewis). I’ve heard that story before, I’m not buying that piece of cheese."

Check it. Lewis, like Alexander, had a monster year in which he had more than 350 carries (387, in 2003), and rushed for more than five yards per carry. From there, he went on the decline.

In 2005 and '06, Lewis averaged less than 4 ypg for the Ravens. Pro Football Reference, at the start of the season, pretty much declared him finished.

But after a trade to the Browns this year, Lewis had a revival--rushing for more than 1,300 yards and 4.6 per carry.

Granted, Lewis is only 28--Alexander will be 31 at the start of next season.

But a career that many thought was finished revived behind a new offensive line.

Could the same happen with Alexander?

Whose fault was his 2007 struggles? His, or the line's?

In my mind, you can't blame a running back for any run that's three yards or less. Runs that go for less that three yards are typically blown up by a defensive lineman who wasn't moved out of the way, or a linebacker that the blocking back missed. This happened over and over again in 2007, and the stats bear that out.

In 2005, Alexander's best season, about half of his runs went for more than three yards. In 2007, only about 35% did.

Getting through the first line of attack is, I think, even more important for Alexander, who's strength is busting through linebackers and undersized cornerbacks. Get him to the second level, as he did about 175 times in 2005, and he could still pile up pretty good yards.

Would he? Maybe not. But as bad as the Hawks line was this year, it's hard to tell.

4 comments:

William said...

Maurice: 4.5 yds per carry
Old Man: 3.5 yds per carry

Didn't they run behind the same "horrible" line?

Seth said...

Yeah, but--Morris was usually used as a passing down back, yards are easier to pile up on third and long. When it was third and short, it was Alexander getting the carries...

But--it may be that Morris is a better back for the type of line the Hawks have now--he's definitely shiftier. He's pretty much crap on third and one situations.

Alan said...

Unless the line is upgraded, then it would make more sense to keep the "shiftier" back, as you put it. Shaun may still have the ability, but unless he has an adequate line, he's not going to show it. There's not a lot of sense in keeping a guy on the roster because of what he can do when the club won't provide him with the tools needed to reach that potential.

Seth said...

Totally agree, which is why I'm a little afraid they are going to waste an early draft pick on an Alexander-like running back. Wait a couple of years until the line gets good again...