Wazzu Win Over Irish Was Predictable, I'm Not So Sure About UNC

Apparently both Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis of CBS picked Notre Dame to upset Wazzu, which just shows you how utterly clueless national broadcasters are about the Pac-10.

Anyone who'd seen Wazzu play even a few times this season would've known that a team of unathletic gunners like the Irish would have no chance against the Cougs.

Wazzu feasts on teams who rely on defensive breakdowns to get good shots. Most college teams constantly screw up on defense (see the 07-08 Huskies). The Cougars do not. Open shots will not happen. Neither will transition buckets, because the Cougs don't contest the offensive boards, and they don't turn the ball over.

You don't stand a chance unless you have superior athletes, or a one-on-one matchup that the Cougs don't have the talent to defend.

For instance, UCLA, who beat the Cougs twice because they have superior quickness on the outside and Kevin Love inside.

Or Stanford, who has the impossible-to-stop Robin Lopez.

North Carolina has similar talent. Tyler Hansbrough I'm not worried about--he's got neither the bulk of Love or the height of Lopez--Baynes, Cowgill, and Forrest should be able to handle him.

But UNC's guards--lightning-quick Ty Lawson and sharp-shooter Wayne Ellington--are tough matchups for the Cougs. Lawson is maybe the fastest point-guard in college basketball...the Cougs simply don't have anyone who can stay in front of him (though, to be fair, neither do most NBA teams). If the Cougs' guards cheat over to help Rochestie, 6-4 sharp-shooter Wayne Ellington lurks on the wing, if he gets open shots, he'll hit them.

Hopefully the Cougs' slowdown style will keep them close, and if UNC has an off-shooting night, they could pull off the upset. Still, Vegas has them as considerable (7.5 point) underdogs. That sounds about right to me.