tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7707437175312061969.post358625483829099692..comments2007-06-01T00:06:57.216-07:00Sethhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16974680617132248575noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7707437175312061969.post-91633211131255666552007-06-01T00:06:00.000-07:002007-06-01T00:06:00.000-07:002007-06-01T00:06:00.000-07:00I'm with you on that one.<BR/><BR/>By the way, the M's now have a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs, in case you were curious. ;-)Nusshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16787190878612482337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7707437175312061969.post-28045688585394118742007-05-31T17:42:00.000-07:002007-05-31T17:42:00.000-07:002007-05-31T17:42:00.000-07:00Good points, both. It's really not much different than saying, "if the season ended today..." which of course I do all the time. I guess it's sort of assigning a number value to that.<BR/><BR/>I'll say this though--if anyone wants to give me 66-1 odds on the Yankees winning the division, I'll take that bet.Sethhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16974680617132248575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7707437175312061969.post-26828196555992550672007-05-31T15:11:00.000-07:002007-05-31T15:11:00.000-07:002007-05-31T15:11:00.000-07:00I'm not sure I get your point...<BR/><BR/>Like anything other statistic, it's a tool. Based on what has happened thus far in the season, this is how likely a team is to make the playoffs. I don't think it's billed as anything more than a simple model to quickly gauge a team. (as Nuss points out the math isn't complicated.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I don't think the Bakers or the Zumstegs of the world have treated it any differently. In fact, Baker has specifically noted how 1 win could dramatically affect the "Cool Standings".BigGreenMonsterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03904855269855461121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7707437175312061969.post-10242838054803829122007-05-31T14:24:00.000-07:002007-05-31T14:24:00.000-07:002007-05-31T14:24:00.000-07:00I agree to a certain extent, since it is only going off of performance to that point in the year and doesn't take anything else into account -- as Vegas does. <BR/><BR/>But I think it's useful in the sense that it can give you an idea of how what your team has done so far is impacting its chances of making the playoffs.<BR/><BR/>Oh, and there's an EASY explanation for the screwball AL West predictions: Coolstandings works off of Bill James' pythagorean theorum of runs for/runs against, and Texas was the only one on the positive side, so naturally any simulation would put them on top by a large margin.<BR/><BR/>Also pretty convenient that you left out the NL standings from May 31, 2006 -- pretty much had three of the four teams nailed except for San Diego/Arizona.<BR/><BR/>Besides, are you confident that this Mariners team is going to get markedly better at some point, through trade or otherwise, that makes the 13.6 percent figure grossly inaccurate?Nusshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16787190878612482337noreply@blogger.com